NFC NO. 2 SEED | 13-4

• Odds to win Super Bowl: +450
• Odds to win NFC: +170

My models are typically quite conservative, so it’s wild to me that San Francisco boasts the NFC’s best odds when it comes to winning Super Bowl LVII. Not only are the 49ers the conference’s No. 2 seed, but they’re led by a rookie quarterback. And not a rookie quarterback selected with a premium pick who started the entire season, but rather Mr. Irrelevant, who entered the lineup in December. However, over 20 seasons of data, the most reliable recipe for postseason success is mixing a strong O-line and run game with a defense that can get after the passer and shut down the run — basically, the 2022 Niners. So far, 60 percent of Brock Purdy’s pass attempts have been to open targets, per NGS, and he leads the NFL with a 119.0 passer rating since taking over as San Francisco’s starter in Week 14. That figure represents the second-highest passer rating among QBs in their first five starts in the Super Bowl era, trailing only NFL Network’s own Kurt Warner (131.4). The 23-year-old’s not just dinking and dunking, either: Since Week 13, Purdy has the second-highest passer rating on throws of 10-plus air yards.