Back in 1987, with Major League Baseball owners colluding against players to suppress salaries, Bob Horner took matters into his own hands. Horner, a former All-Star and Rookie of the Year winner, earned 54 times and posted 121 OPS+ for the Atlanta Braves in the 1985 and 1986 seasons, making it all the more exciting when he agreed to a one-year contract with Yakult Swallows. The Swallows, part of the Nippon Professional League of Japan, were willing to do what no MLB club could do: Pay Horner what he thought he was worth, or nearly $2 million.
According to an article in the Los Angeles Times, he said, “The Japanese called and made a good show.” “I was about to think I’d be sitting all year long.”
Horner did not enjoy his time in Japan. He later turned down a multi-year offer from Swallows to return to the majors, as he suffered a shoulder injury that ended his career a year later. However, fans of a certain age may have thought of Horner once or twice already this season. With the owners of the MLB franchise shutting down players on December 2, the hot stove has been put out. (“Any contact with major league players or agents on any subject is prohibited,” is the league’s directive to front office staff.) The only transaction news devoured at the time since has been the continued cadence of MLB players pushing America’s shores for more certainty in NPB in Japan or the Korean Baseball Organization, the No. 2 and 3 leagues in the world.
And the weekend alone saw third baseman Rio Ruiz, a veteran of parts of six seasons in the Big League, and Chris Gittens, who has appeared in 16 games for the New York Yankees, with the Asian League teams. They join the growing list of departures including Yassel Puig, Freddy Galves, Ivan Nova, etc. Reportedly, former pirate captain Gregory Polanco is close to striking a deal in Japan. It suffices to make a casual observer wonder: Is exodus underway, and even bigger names could trickle out if the MLB shutdown continues into the spring?
“I’m not sure about that,” an Asian League scout told CBS Sports when asked if the players seemed more willing to move to Japan or South Korea. “I wanted it to be like that, I thought it might be, but it seems to me a bit ‘business as usual’.”
As for the poll point, the top players heading to Asia had extenuating circumstances surrounding their exit. For example, Puig had trouble getting an MLB contract even before he settled a civil lawsuit alleging that he sexually assaulted a woman. Meanwhile, Galvez has signed a contract that could pay him up to $6 million over two seasons, a fair amount more than he would have earned in the majors. As for Polanco… well, even MLB front desk types aren’t sure how to explain it.
“I think the profiles of the big names, in general, are not the profiles that are valued here as much as they used to be,” one analyst said of the players who signed offshore. “I’m not sure what to do about signing Polanco.”
Ruiz, Gittens, and most of the other well-known names booking international flights are the types that would have left MLB during an unusual season anyway. What makes their exits noticeable this winter is the lack of MLB activity to overwhelm or break up the rhythm. Factor in how the talent streak flows in only one direction – Japanese starters Masahiro Tanaka and Tomoyuki Sugano both previously had withdrawal terms that would have allowed them to join the MLB, and the deployment process for star player Seiya Suzuki wouldn’t be complete until after that. Shutdown – and it’s easy to see that the talent pool in MLB is draining at an unsustainable pace.
So, what will happen if the shutdown continues into the spring, possibly threatening MLB’s chances of a record fair or regular season – could a player of greater stature like Horner emerge in the modern era?
“I don’t think the biggest talent will move abroad, it’s just a strange opportunity now for Asian clubs,” said the analyst.
“The uncertainty surrounding what the market will look like after the shutdown is the clearest reason why some of these marginal players are going abroad,” an agency source said. “The best agents on the market still have teams chasing after them, but the fringe types have no effect and teams will move through this group of players quickly, so more players are looking for safety.”
It is noteworthy that not all marginal species see Asia as the destination. According to multiple sources told CBS Sports, a Houston Astros player was at the bottom of the 40-player roster nearing an overseas playing agreement before asking his front office to shop for him on other MLB teams. The Astros did not find a receiver before closing, but the player still appears to choose not to proceed with his move across the ocean.
Even if swarms of MLB players want to hold on to MLB owners by signing in Japan or South Korea, both leagues have measures that guard against mass immigration. KBO limits the number of foreign-born players allowed on rosters and limits first-year international player earnings to just $1 million. The NPB is not strict about the number of foreign players a team can sign (the KBO cap will technically increase in 2023 with the addition of minor league points), but it does limit the number of players that can be active in any given game. Of course, such legislation will prevent a flood, but it will not stop some players from considering an Asian league – specifically Japan – if the lockdown continues long enough.
One thing is for sure, no player leaving for the NPB or KBO this winter is taking the same risk that Horner did when he signed with the Swallows. Enough players have returned to MLB with improved stocks after stints abroad — whether it’s Nick Martinez, Josh Lindblom or Eric Thiems — to consider it a viable route to payday.
“The amount of information and data that overseas player teams are getting is as massive as ever,” the agency source said. “It’s very easy for a guy to bet his stuff and go to Japan, or anywhere else, and double the amount he made in the States in one season.”