Last week, we covered the numbers that will be a top priority for the MLB Players Association during our collective bargaining discussions – adjustments to the service time structure. Today, we’ll look at what should be one of the most important issues for Major League Baseball: a potential expansion beyond the season.
The extended playoff appears to have been a major issue for the league for some time, as MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes discussed in January with business consultant Eugene Friedman. More playoff teams simply means more games for MLB to offer TV partners – deals that have proven very profitable for the league in recent years. Under previous collective bargaining agreements, proceeds from television matches went exclusively to the league. Creating additional rounds for sale to FOX, Turner, or any other broadcast partner may provide further windfall for the league and its owners.
The League and Players Association has already approved one expansion of the extension, as it jumped to 16 teams during the truncated 2020 season. This was a one-time agreement, but Commissioner Rob Manfred publicly expressed support for expanding the permanent annex last year. Manfred previously floated 14 teams as the league’s perfect number, and ESPN’s Jesse Rogers reported last week that MLB had a 14-team playoff format on the table during its early collective bargaining proposals.
According to Rogers, the MLB proposal would contain seven postseason teams from both the US and national leagues. In addition to the three division winners, each league will feature four wildcard clubs. The team with the best record in each league will get a first round, while the remaining six teams in each league will participate in the three-match Wild Card series.
Under MLB’s vision, the two division winners in each league who do not say goodbye will choose their opponents in the Wild Card Series. The divisional winner with the second-best record will choose their opponent from the last three wild card clubs; The winner remaining in the division will have a choice of two Wild Card teams at the bottom still available; The remaining Wild Card winners will face each other. The highest ranked team in each league will host all three matches of the inaugural series.
While the potential post-season expansion looks distinctly positive for MLB, its effects on players could be more mixed. Entering a playoff round will have a direct financial benefit for some players. Under previous CBA terms, players on postseason teams received varying shares (dependent on team termination) of gate revenue in October. More playoffs means more gate revenue, which should benefit some players each year.
That alone doesn’t seem enough to convince players to wholeheartedly embrace the post-season expansion. For example, the league’s interest in the larger playoffs is greater than that of the MLBPA, giving the league a powerful bargaining chip perhaps to obtain concessions on other issues (such as service time structure, welfare tax thresholds) of greater importance to players. The MLBPA no doubt has concerns about the potential spillover effects of supplement expansion on group spending habits.
A bigger stadium inherently means more potential for each team to make post-season. With increased possibilities can come complacency. A club with an already strong roster may not be as eager to improve under 14 teams as they would under the current system, considering they are already comfortable with their current prospects. Removing the Wild Card game reduces the incentive for teams to win their divisions, as divisional winners and Wild Card clubs alike will find themselves in a three-match streak in the opening round (although a possible farewell to the top seed will increase clubs’ incentive to pursue the best record in the league).
This is particularly true in MLB, which is a league with a high level of variance in relatively small samples. The playoff series in MLB is less predictable than it is in leagues like the NBA and NFL, a trend that was reinforced in 2021 when the regular season’s record-worst playoff team (the Braves) won the World Championship. Based on this high level of match volatility, many teams can be satisfied with the post-season – even as one of the low seed – and simply hope for a hot stretch once they get there. Lowering the entry level may make it easier for organizations with already strong big league rosters to be less active in free agency, which is an obvious concern for the players’ union.
MLB could counter this possibility by increasing the desire to improve among middle-class clubs. After all, this small sample fluctuation gives teams with average or slightly above average rosters a chance to go on a long playoff. Improving from a 76-win slate to an 84-win slate would be significantly more impactful under this vision than under the current system.
Still, the MLBPA appears to have reservations about the competitive incentives that come with a potential playoff expansion. This is reflected in their counter-proposal, with Rogers reporting that the league’s latest bid includes 12 post-season teams, not the MLB’s desired 14 clubs. Details about the MLBPA’s bid are not clear, though Rogers noted that the proposal included a major restructuring that would see each league adjust from the division’s current setup into two divisions each (one with eight clubs, and one with seven).
With the MLBPA already showing openness to 12 teams, it would be surprising if the next CBA didn’t include some form of expansion. Maintaining the 10-team status quo seems unlikely, as MLB would presumably prefer a 12-team setup to the current system even if the MLBPA does not go to a 14-team tournament. The scalability of the playoff could go a long way toward achieving more positive outcomes in some of the other areas that the MLBPA finds most urgent.
For fans, the playoff expansion appears to be largely due to aesthetic preference. Some will naturally hold back on the idea, which will likely eventually lead to a new record-worst regular season record for the World Champion (currently held by the 2006 Cardinals’ 83-78). Traditionally, MLB has had a smaller post-season field than the other major leagues, which is a huge draw for some fans. On the other hand, some viewers are more likely to enjoy a larger field. A greater chance of reaching beyond the season means more teams stay in the competition. This will likely result in more fan bases continuing to invest in August and September of each season, which will be an advantage for many observers.