The Cardinals went on a late-night strike to bolster their rotation, and reportedly came to an agreement with the start of the free agent Stephen Matz Guaranteed $44 million for four years, pending physical examination. Incentives could eventually push that number to $48 million. Matz is an Icon Sports Management client.
Matz has reportedly made offers from eight clubs, and interest was strong enough that he was expected to sign before Thanksgiving. The teams’ affinity for the 30-year-old is also evident in the final contract terms, with Matz’s deal more or less easily beating MLBTR’s three-year forecast of $27 million this winter.
The left-handed member has been a trusted rotating member for the majority of the past few years. He hit 150 innings and scored an ERA between 3.82 and 4.21 in each of his last three seasons of 162 games. His peripherals weren’t quite as impressive, but Matz typically delivered numbers close to the league average while reliably taking the ball every fifth day.
Matz had never before had elite things swing and miss. This continued as it was in 2021, with a 22.3% hit rate and 9.4% swing hit rate both slightly shy of the league average marks (22.6% and 10.9%) for starting bowlers. This is arguably less worrying for St. Louis than other clubs around the league, with the Cardinals reportedly looking to find better-equipped shooters to take advantage of the team’s elite defense. Matz seems to fit that bill, as he annually posts lower walking rates than most and usually induces globes at a slightly higher than average rate.
He’s also one of the toughest shooters available, averaging 94.5 MPH on his holes in each of the past two years. This is especially rare for left-handed beginners, as there are only seven more Southern Feet (100 rounds minimum) throwing more aggressively on average in 2021. It will add a different look to a Cardinal spin that otherwise includes right-handers Adam WainwrightAnd Jack FlahertyAnd Miles Micholas And Dakota Hudson.
Adding to Matz’s plea is that the Blue Jays refused to issue a qualifying bid for him at the start of the season. The signing would cost St. Louis no compensation for choosing a draft, and Toronto would not receive any form of compensation for his departure. Jays was reportedly among the teams that bid in hopes of keeping Matz north of the border, but this effort proved insufficient to keep him in Jays uniform for more than one season.
There’s a lot to like about a front office in St. Louis in Matz, but this deal comes with its share of risks. While Matz has been a solid performer in three of the past four seasons, his 2020 campaign has been nothing short of a disaster. He was marked for 9.68 ERA across 30 2/3 innings that year, having made an amazing 14 home runs in the time. Including the offer of deals is a huge blow to Matz’s recent rather solid work.
Going back to the beginning of 2018, he has a 4.36 ERA/4.55 FIP cumulative in just under 500 frames. This is not a particularly impressive production on the whole, worse than the production of Anthony Disclavani, who signed a three-year, $36 million deal with the Giants on Monday. DeSclafani is a year older than Matz, and the Cardinals may simply be willing to write off 2020 as a small sample in an overall anomalous year.
Homers has been a problem for Matz for the greater part of his career despite his globetrotting tendencies. He generally gave up a lot of hard contact when the hitters were able to get the ball up in the air against him. The 2021 campaign was the first in his career that Homer was allowed per fly ball at a rate below the league mark. Whether he can maintain that kind of success in keeping the ball in the yard could go a long way toward determining whether he will continue to publish a sub-4 epoch over the coming seasons.
Details of Matz’s contract have yet to be released, but he will have an average annual value of $11 million. The Cardinal has the flexibility to absorb an eight-figure salary over the next few seasons, with Roster Resource’s Jason Martinez anticipating 2022 player commitments to the club in the $142 million range before the Matz deal is factored in. Their commitments came out around $77 million in 2023. The franchise has opened the past few seasons with payrolls hovering around $160 million, so the $11 million fixed annual repayment would leave somewhere around $7 million – $10 million in 2022 if the ownership stops. On a similar payroll next year. (Obviously reloading the deal would leave more immediate space but would have a greater impact on the club’s future commitments.)
That might allow St. Louis to make another addition or two elsewhere on the list, and Katie Wu of Athletic Tweets which the Cardinals are expected to continue to add. It’s already a solid group without many obvious holes on paper, though the Shortstop, backup catcher and bullpen all stand out as speculative possibilities for upgrades over the coming months.
Jeff Bassan from ESPN She reported that the Cardinals and Matz were in agreement on a four-year, $44 million guarantee that could go up to a maximum of $48 million based on incentives.
Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.